5 Critical Points about Hillary's Campaign by Nathaniel Bach

1. Hillary's support, while still larger than Obama's at the moment, has likely peaked. There's no potential voter not already familiar with Senator Clinton. Her name-recognition and its built-in advantage is a thing of envy for all her challengers, but here's the thing: while Clinton's support is near or slightly above where it was over a year ago, Obama's base of support has grown steadily as he becomes more and more familiar to the electorate. Obama keeps trending upward, while Clinton has hit a ceiling.

2. To use an economist's turn of phrase, Obama increases the size of the electoral pie, whereas Hillary's pie isn't getting any bigger. This phenomenon was seen dramatically in South Carolina this past weekend. Democratic turnout was so far off the charts precisely because voters who were otherwise apathetic or disinclined to participate in electoral politics finally came out in droves. In South Carolina, it was African Americans; in Iowa, it was the youth and independents. By bringing new voters to the table in the primaries (as he doubtlessly would in the general election), Obama has the potential to capture hundreds of thousands more votes than other candidates. His domination in South Carolina was so total that he not only easily defeated his Democratic rivals, but the Republican candidates as well, garnering more votes than McCain and Huckabee combined. The total Democratic turnout (more than 530,000 voters) was head and shoulders above the GOP's (440,000+ voters). With increase-the-pie electoral math like this, Obama has the unique power to put traditional GOP strongholds in play, turning red states blue (although in his unitive magnanimity, he might say purple). And in the game of presidential electoral economics, where the battles are fought on the margins (think Ohio, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin), the advantage is Obama's.

3. Perhaps Clinton's greatest potential problem for the general election--particularly against John McCain, who has improbably, and probably much to the horror of the Clintons, emerged as the frontrunner--has been her inability to bring independent voters into her camp. While both Clinton and Karl Rove have argued that Obama's record is more liberal than hers, Obama remains the candidate of bipartisanship who is best suited to capture the centrist vote. In fact, 82% of Republicans (and 54% of all voters) view Clinton as politically liberal, while only 65% of GOP voters see either Obama (47% of all voters) or Edwards (42% of all voters) as politically liberal. What makes this all the more ironic is that Clinton had consciously staked out moderate positions long in advance of her presidential run, for what cynics (probably correctly) adduced were calculated moves to help position her as a stronger (read "less liberal") general election candidate (after what was to be a cakewalk of a primary). Now, however, even after positioning herself as the most hawkish of the Democratic candidates (the DLC's choice, if you will), she finds herself so unable to attract independents that many pundits believe that Michael Bloomberg would see an opening for his centrist candidacy only if Clinton were to become the nominee, but not if it were Obama.

4. Clinton's campaign, as much as she has tried to wrest the "change" mantel from Obama, is about the restoration of bygone era, the 1990s--sure, perhaps an era preferable to that of the current administration, but not one which fulfills the potential of what the Democratic party can become (an ever-expanding majority) in the next twenty years. Obama's campaign on the other hand is about revolution, building a Democratic party for the future by tapping into yet unexploited political will. One model will preserve the Democratic party as it now exists, whereas the other is a growth paradigm. The former is Clinton's, the latter Obama's.

5. Finally, without exception, every friend, acquaintance, and co-worker of mine who is a Clinton backer has told me that he or she would support Obama (often actively) if he became the nominee. The opposite, however, is not close to true. As much as it frustrates me to imagine moderate friends of mine casting a vote for a GOP candidate who would extend and elaborate upon many of Bush's polices, a startling number of them would pledge their votes to McCain, Bloomberg, or reruns of Seinfeld on November 4, 2008, rather than hold their nose and vote for Clinton. Whether this is mere bluster and insincere threat, I can't say. But what's clear is that these current Obama supporters will not be marching head held high into Clinton's camp.

Second Part of Kennedy Endorsement

The following is Senator Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama:

Earlier today I endorsed Barack Obama for president, and I couldn't be more excited for the Democratic Party, the nation -- and the world.

Barack inspires me -- it's that simple. In the words of President Kennedy:
"The world is changing. The old ways will not do... It is time for a new generation of leadership."
In Barack, I see that next generation of American leadership: a figure who can transcend the divisions in this country that my family and I have fought so hard to tear down.
We were all moved four years ago as Barack told us a profound truth: We are not red states and blue states, but one United States. Since then, he has matched that rhetoric with action, traveling the country to inspire record turnouts of men and women of all ages, races, parties and faiths. Barack has forged consensus in the Senate on contentious issues such as immigration and pushed through necessary reforms like the most far-reaching ethics reform in its history.
But I'm not only supporting Barack because of what he has done. What counts in our leadership is not the length of years in Washington, but the reach of our vision, the strength of our beliefs, and that rare quality of mind and spirit that can call forth the best in our country and our people.
That's why I'm most excited about the promise of President Obama:
As president, Barack Obama will break the Washington gridlock to finally make health care what it should be in America.
He will turn the page on the old politics of misrepresentation and distortion and bridge the divisions of race, gender, ethnicity and sexual orientation that plague our country.
He will end a war in Iraq that he has always stood against, that has cost us the lives of thousands of our sons and daughters, and that America never should have fought.
He will close the door on the old economics that has written off the poor and left the middle class poorer and less secure.
He will make the United States the great leader and not the great roadblock in the fateful fight against global warming.
When Barack Obama raises his hand on Inauguration Day a new generation of American leadership will take charge and restore the hope, peace and prosperity the country so desperately needs.
Looking out from the stage today, I realized just how powerful his campaign has become. It's a movement for change -- and one that I'm proud to be a part of.

Kennedy's Endorse Obama

Here is Caroline Kennedy's endorsement of Obama from the New York Times:

OVER the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.

My reasons are patriotic, political and personal, and the three are intertwined. All my life, people have told me that my father changed their lives, that they got involved in public service or politics because he asked them to. And the generation he inspired has passed that spirit on to its children. I meet young people who were born long after John F. Kennedy was president, yet who ask me how to live out his ideals.

Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible.

We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960.

Most of us would prefer to base our voting decision on policy differences. However, the candidates’ goals are similar. They have all laid out detailed plans on everything from strengthening our middle class to investing in early childhood education. So qualities of leadership, character and judgment play a larger role than usual.

Senator Obama has demonstrated these qualities throughout his more than two decades of public service, not just in the United States Senate but in Illinois, where he helped turn around struggling communities, taught constitutional law and was an elected state official for eight years. And Senator Obama is showing the same qualities today. He has built a movement that is changing the face of politics in this country, and he has demonstrated a special gift for inspiring young people — known for a willingness to volunteer, but an aversion to politics — to become engaged in the political process.

I have spent the past five years working in the New York City public schools and have three teenage children of my own. There is a generation coming of age that is hopeful, hard-working, innovative and imaginative. But too many of them are also hopeless, defeated and disengaged. As parents, we have a responsibility to help our children to believe in themselves and in their power to shape their future. Senator Obama is inspiring my children, my parents’ grandchildren, with that sense of possibility.

Senator Obama is running a dignified and honest campaign. He has spoken eloquently about the role of faith in his life, and opened a window into his character in two compelling books. And when it comes to judgment, Barack Obama made the right call on the most important issue of our time by opposing the war in Iraq from the beginning.

I want a president who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and encourage others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him, to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs every one of us to get involved.

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

Worth a Second Watch

Billary's attacks have been getting way out of hand so I thought now would be a good time to dust off an oldie but a goodie...

Some Humor...

Billary...

Well I was trying to think what I could say after the debate last night on CNN, and I came across this article by Marc Cooper and it pretty much sums it up:


At one heated point in Monday night's Democratic debate, a perturbed Barack Obama finally blurted out to Hillary Clinton what millions of others have been thinking these past weeks. After Clinton said that what her husband says might be different than what she says or what her campaign says, Obama disgustedly said "I can't tell who I'm running against sometimes."

Sorry it's come to this, but this Democratic primary nominating process has, indeed, become all about Bill Clinton. Thanks to Hillary Clinton.
The ex-president has been rolled out as campaign attack dog to bark, bite, snap and tear away at Obama in a way that Hillary -- as candidate -- cannot and will not.
Hillary can't have it both ways. You can't deploy the clout of your husband the ex-president in the middle of your campaign and then not take responsibility for every word he utters, every action he undertakes. Right down to his shameful direct intervention in a crucial polling place in last Saturday's Nevada caucuses.
But there's deeper point. Who exactly is Hillary Clinton anyway if not someone who has parasitically attached herself to the legacy and record of Bill Clinton? Without having been his First Lady, if not exactly his only lady, Ms. Clinton would be but a corporate lawyer turned junior senator from New York and with a less than sterling voting record -- including her authorization of the war in Iraq, approval of a war-mongering resolution on Iran and an inglorious bill to criminalize the national epidemic of flag-burning.
"Elections are about the future," Clinton said tonight, parroting the most moth-eaten of campaign clichés. But Hillary has made it strictly about the past as her only affirmative argument for the future is to resurrect the politics of the previous decade.
In Monday night's debate, all three candidates went at each other. But Obama finally opened up some cuts on the Clintons, calling out Hillary for lecturing him about supposedly being soft on Reagan. "While I was working in the streets watching those folks watch their jobs shift overseas," he said staring at Clinton and referring to those who suffered under Reagan's policies, "you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board of Wal-Mart."
It might be too little too late on Obama's part. But it was absolutely the right thing to do. Hillary has made Bill, his record, his approach to politics, his policies, his style and her embodiment of all the above as the central issue in the campaign. The only honorable position for any opponent of Clinton's is to take her -- and him -- on.

MLK: In his own words